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Posts Tagged ‘Obama lead in polls’

Nate Silver parses the latest. You really must go here for his excellent full analysis of the day’s results. Of the much-touted CBS poll showing a 14-point lead for Obama today amongst likely voters, he says, it could be an outlier,

 

But if so, John McCain has more and more outliers that he has to explain away these days. There are now no fewer than seven current national polls that show Obama with a double-digit advantage: Newsweek (+11), ABC/Post (+10), Democracy Corps (+10), Research 2000 (+10), Battleground (+13), Gallup (+10 using their Likely Voter II model) and now this CBS News poll.

These are balanced by other results that show the race a hair tighter. Our model now projects that, were an election held today, Obama would win by 8.1 points. It also expects that the race is more likely than not to tighten some.

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